26 Oct · 08:25 MEZMedium · Model Lean
SK
🇺🇦Serhii Kryvoshyi
ELO 1486
FormWLWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Dunas
MD
🇺🇦Mykhailo Dunas
ELO 1567
FormLWWWL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Dunas
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 73% · 1.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~72 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
18%
0-3
18%
3-1
16%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H6-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (6-0)