26 Oct · 08:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
PM
🇺🇦Pavel Moulis
ELO 1369
FormLLLLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Obraz
MO
🇺🇦Martin Obraz
ELO 1392
FormLWLWW
48%
52%
🔥 Underdog lean · Moulis🌟Obraz rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (33)
Fair odds · Obraz
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
16%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H22-17
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.