3 Nov · 08:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1505
FormLLWWL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Adam
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1567
FormLWLWL
43%
57%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 32% (108)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
18%
0-3
17%
3-1
16%
3-2
16%
Elo Gap+62
H2H22-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+62)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (22-16)