3 Nov · 11:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1514
FormWWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Maliuk
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lyman
ELO 1425
FormLWWLL
59%
41%
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~75 pts
3-1
23%
3-2
19%
3-0
18%
1-3
15%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+89
H2H39-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+89)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (39-25)