4 Nov · 08:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MK
🇺🇦Matej Kovarik
ELO 1588
FormWWWWL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Kovarik
MS
🇺🇦Michal Stibor
ELO 1548
FormLWLLW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Kovarik
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 38% · 2.67· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~77 pts
3-1
21%
1-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+40
H2H2-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.