5 Nov · 10:20 MEZLow · Slight Edge
MS
🇺🇦Maksym Stetsenko
ELO 1544
FormLLWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Stetsenko
OO
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ovsiienko
ELO 1512
FormWWLWW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Stetsenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~72 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+32
H2H72-78
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.