5 Nov · 23:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
SR
🇺🇦Serhii Rak
ELO 1689
FormWWLWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Rak
DS
🇺🇦Denys Shcherbak
ELO 1619
FormWLWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Rak
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 59% · 1.70· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+70
H2H69-54
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+70)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (69-54)