6 Nov · 07:15 MEZMedium · Model Lean
LA
🇺🇦Lukas Adam
ELO 1568
FormWLWLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Adam
MM
🇺🇦Michal Makara
ELO 1495
FormLLLWL
58%
42%
🔥 Underdog lean · Makara🌟Adam rarely covers set handicap as favourite 33% (116)
Fair odds · Adam
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 40%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
18%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+73
H2H24-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+73)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (24-16)