6 Nov · 06:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1496
FormLWLLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Maliuk
OL
🇺🇦Oleksandr Lyman
ELO 1451
FormWLLWW
55%
45%
Fair odds · Maliuk
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H40-25
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (40-25)