6 Nov · 07:00 MEZLow · Slight Edge
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1399
FormLWLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ponomarenko
PO
🇺🇦Pavlo Ostrovskyi
ELO 1369
FormLWWLW
53%
47%
🌟Ponomarenko stays under total as favourite 63% (144)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 66% · 1.51· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~74 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+30
H2H3-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.