7 Nov · 07:15 MEZLow · Slight Edge
JG
🇺🇦Josef Gruber
ELO 1632
FormWLWWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Gruber
DM
🇺🇦Dominik Marasek
ELO 1609
FormWWLLL
52%
48%
🌟Marasek covers set handicap as underdog 68% (66)
Fair odds · Gruber
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 35% · 2.82· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+23
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.