9 Nov · 06:30 MEZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Valerii Kolesnykov
ELO 1497
FormLWLLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kovshun
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1583
FormLWLWL
41%
59%
🔥 Underdog lean · Kolesnykov🌟Kolesnykov covers set handicap as underdog 62% (128)
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 61% · 1.65· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 41%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
19%
0-3
18%
3-1
15%
3-2
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H13-6
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (13-6)