10 Nov · 08:35 MEZLow · Slight Edge
YK
🇺🇦Yaroslav Kovshun
ELO 1558
FormLLLWW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kovshun
MT
🇺🇦Maksym Tiutiunnyk
ELO 1532
FormWWLLW
53%
47%
🔥 Underdog lean · Tiutiunnyk
Fair odds · Kovshun
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 42% · 2.37· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
1-3
18%
2-3
17%
3-2
17%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+26
H2H4-9
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.