10 Nov · 07:45 MEZMedium · Model Lean
TH
🇺🇦Tomas Hlavacek
ELO 1683
FormWLLLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Hlavacek
LD
🇺🇦Ladislav Dobias
ELO 1616
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
🔥 Underdog lean · Dobias🌟Hlavacek goes over total as favourite 66% (38)
Fair odds · Hlavacek
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 65% · 1.55· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~78 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+67
H2H11-4
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+67)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (11-4)