11 Nov · 10:35 MEZMedium · Model Lean
VK
🇺🇦Vladyslav Kovalchuk
ELO 1538
FormLWWLW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Kovalchuk
DM
🇺🇦Denys Maltsev
ELO 1472
FormLLWLW
57%
43%
Fair odds · Kovalchuk
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 71% · 1.42· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
18%
3-0
17%
1-3
16%
2-3
15%
Elo Gap+66
H2H33-8
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+66)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (33-8)