11 Nov · 06:30 MEZLow · Slight Edge
SM
🇺🇦Serhii Maliuk
ELO 1495
FormLWWLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Ziakun
OZ
🇺🇦Oleksandr Ziakun
ELO 1524
FormWWLLW
47%
53%
🔥 Underdog lean · Maliuk🌟Maliuk covers set handicap as underdog 66% (194)
Fair odds · Ziakun
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~76 pts
1-3
20%
3-1
18%
3-2
17%
2-3
17%
0-3
16%
Elo Gap+29
H2H38-30
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.