11 Nov · 10:05 MEZMedium · Model Lean
OP
🇺🇦Oleh Ponomarenko
ELO 1438
FormWWWLW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Ponomarenko
SO
🇺🇦Sergey Osipov
ELO 1393
FormLWWWL
55%
45%
🌟Ponomarenko stays under total as favourite 64% (152)
Fair odds · Ponomarenko
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
17%
1-3
17%
3-0
17%
2-3
16%
Elo Gap+45
H2H19-13
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+45)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (19-13)