24 Jun · 10:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1570
FormWWLWW
55%Win chancemodel fair 1.82Galus
DD
🇨🇿Dariusz Drozdz
ELO 1509
FormLWLWL
55%
45%
Fair value · Galus
Model 55% · 1.82vsMarket 53% · 1.90· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~80 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+61
H2H2-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+61)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (2-0)