24 Jun · 20:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1514
FormWLWWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Vorisek
TV
🇨🇿Tomas Vorisek
ELO 1522
FormLLLLL
49%
51%
Fair value · Vorisek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
18%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+8
H2H23-21
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.