24 Jun · 12:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
DD
🇨🇿Dariusz Drozdz
ELO 1517
FormWLWLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Drozdz
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1506
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair value · Drozdz
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~80 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-3
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.