24 Jun · 21:05 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MC
🇨🇿Martin Chmelicek
ELO 1483
FormWLLLW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Chmelicek
MF
🇨🇿Milan Flesar
ELO 1474
FormWWLLL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Chmelicek
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 45% · 2.21· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~75 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+9
H2H3-13
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.