25 Jun · 12:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
MN
🇨🇿Michal Nemec
ELO 1453
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Nemec
PC
🇨🇿Pavel Cibik
ELO 1442
FormWLLLW
51%
49%
Fair odds · Nemec
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 41% · 2.43· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
19%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+11
H2H4-12
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.