25 Jun · 12:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MG
🇨🇿Mateusz Galus
ELO 1621
FormLWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Galus
PG
🇨🇿Pawel Gola
ELO 1576
FormWLLLL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Galus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.86· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~80 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+45
H2H39-27
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.