25 Jun · 17:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KB
🇨🇿Karel Baros
ELO 1518
FormWLLWL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Osvald
DO
🇨🇿David Osvald
ELO 1555
FormWLWLL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Osvald
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 44% · 2.26· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~74 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
18%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+37
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.