25 Jun · 21:20 MESZLow · Coin Flip
TJ
🇨🇿Tomas Cerveny Jr
ELO 1497
FormWLLWW
50%Win chancemodel fair 2.00Jr
AJ
🇨🇿Ales Brandtl Jr
ELO 1498
FormLWWWL
50%
50%
Fair odds · Jr
Model 50% · 2.00vsMarket 46% · 2.16· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 31%Total ~78 pts
1-3
19%
2-3
19%
3-2
19%
3-1
19%
0-3
13%
Elo Gap+1
H2H32-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.