25 Jun · 18:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
FS
🇨🇿Filip Strejc
ELO 1545
FormLLLLL
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Stusek
MS
🇨🇿Martin Stusek
ELO 1637
FormWLWLW
42%
58%
Fair odds · Stusek
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
16%
Elo Gap+92
H2H76-68
Why this call
Why this pick? · 3 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+92)
- ✓Better recent form (3-2)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (76-68)