25 Jun · 17:50 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MC
🇨🇿Martin Cerny
ELO 1712
FormLWWLL
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Cerny
DH
🇨🇿Daniel Hyza
ELO 1625
FormLWWWL
57%
43%
Fair odds · Cerny
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 63% · 1.60· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~75 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
16%
Elo Gap+87
H2H15-14
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+87)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (15-14)