25 Jun · 21:10 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇨🇿Michal Macurak
ELO 1462
FormWLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Kindl
TK
🇨🇿Tomas Kindl
ELO 1504
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Kindl
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 7%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+42
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.