25 Jun · 13:30 MESZLow · Coin Flip
ML
🇨🇿Michal Lysakowski
ELO 1558
FormLLLWW
51%Win chancemodel fair 1.96Lysakowski
BM
🇨🇿Bartlomiej Molka
ELO 1540
FormWWWWL
51%
49%
Fair odds · Lysakowski
Model 51% · 1.96vsMarket 49% · 2.04· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~81 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+18
H2H42-26
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.