25 Jun · 13:15 MESZLow · Slight Edge
PS
🇨🇿Patrik Sturma
ELO 1499
FormWWWLW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Sturma
JL
🇨🇿Jakub Lysek
ELO 1470
FormLWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Sturma
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+29
H2H18-22
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.