24 Jun · 06:50 UTCMedium · Model Lean
MU
🇵🇱Mateusz Ufnal
ELO 1550
FormWWLWW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Ufnal
BC
🇵🇱Bartosz Czerwinski
ELO 1503
FormLWLWL
56%
44%
Fair value · Ufnal
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 51% · 1.94· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~75 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+47
H2H0-1
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+47)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)