24 Jun · 09:40 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1587
FormWWLWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Poliniewicz
MU
🇵🇱Mateusz Ufnal
ELO 1558
FormWWWLW
54%
46%
Fair value · Poliniewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+29
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.