24 Jun · 10:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KA
🇵🇱Kacper Adamus
ELO 1609
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Adamus
RS
🇵🇱Rafal Skotniczny
ELO 1591
FormWLLLL
52%
48%
Fair value · Adamus
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 50% · 2.02· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+18
H2H5-5
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.