24 Jun · 12:05 MESZMedium · Model Lean
MU
🇵🇱Mateusz Ufnal
ELO 1557
FormWLWWW
57%Win chancemodel fair 1.75Ufnal
MN
🇵🇱Maciej Nowalinski
ELO 1506
FormLLLWW
57%
43%
Fair value · Ufnal
Model 57% · 1.75vsMarket 31% · 3.22· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 37%Total ~76 pts
3-1
21%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
1-3
16%
3-0
15%
Elo Gap+51
H2H0-0
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+51)
- ✓Better recent form (4-1)