25 Jun · 05:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1464
FormLWLLW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Adamus
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1500
FormLWWWW
46%
54%
Fair odds · Adamus
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 50% · 2.00· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~79 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+36
H2H1-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.