25 Jun · 02:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kwapis
ELO 1628
FormWLLLL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Kwapis
JW
🇵🇱Jakub Witkowski
ELO 1611
FormLLLLL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Kwapis
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 64% · 1.56· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H2-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.