25 Jun · 03:25 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jerzy Michalik
ELO 1483
FormWWWWL
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Kubiak
AK
🇵🇱Artur Kubiak
ELO 1536
FormWLLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Kubiak
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~79 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+53
H2H23-16
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+53)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (23-16)