25 Jun · 05:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1464
FormLLLLW
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Lilien
AL
🇵🇱Adam Linek
ELO 1441
FormWLLLW
53%
47%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~79 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+23
H2H53-33
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.