25 Jun · 06:30 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1464
FormLLLLW
58%Win chancemodel fair 1.72Lilien
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1396
FormWLLWL
58%
42%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 58% · 1.72vsMarket 56% · 1.79· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 38%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
2-3
17%
3-0
16%
1-3
16%
Elo Gap+68
H2H52-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+68)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (52-40)