25 Jun · 06:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
WU
🇵🇱Wojciech Urban
ELO 1404
FormLLWLL
53%Win chancemodel fair 1.89Idaczyk
RI
🇵🇱Rafal Idaczyk
ELO 1434
FormLLLWL
47%
53%
Fair odds · Idaczyk
Model 53% · 1.89vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 34%Total ~78 pts
1-3
20%
2-3
19%
3-2
18%
3-1
17%
0-3
14%
Elo Gap+30
H2H4-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.