25 Jun · 05:55 MESZElite · Strong Favorite
MM
🇵🇱Michal Machelski
ELO 1368
FormWLWLL
70%Win chancemodel fair 1.43Nocun
ZN
🇵🇱Zbigniew Nocun
ELO 1557
FormWLLLW
30%
70%
Fair odds · Nocun
Model 70% · 1.43vsMarket 73% · 1.36· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 49%Total ~76 pts
1-3
26%
0-3
23%
2-3
21%
3-2
13%
3-1
11%
Elo Gap+189
H2H38-9
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+189)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (38-9)