25 Jun · 08:55 MESZMedium · Model Lean
AL
🇵🇱Aleksander Lilien
ELO 1476
FormWWWLL
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Lilien
KR
🇵🇱Kamil Rudomina
ELO 1390
FormWLLWW
59%
41%
Fair odds · Lilien
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 57% · 1.76· vig 10%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~77 pts
3-1
22%
3-2
20%
3-0
17%
2-3
17%
1-3
15%
Elo Gap+86
H2H53-40
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+86)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (53-40)