25 Jun · 10:20 MESZMedium · Model Lean
YF
🇵🇱Yurij Fomin
ELO 1512
FormWWLLW
56%Win chancemodel fair 1.79Lebek
ML
🇵🇱Marian Lebek
ELO 1568
FormLWLWW
44%
56%
Fair odds · Lebek
Model 56% · 1.79vsMarket 65% · 1.54· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 36%Total ~78 pts
1-3
21%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
3-1
16%
0-3
15%
Elo Gap+56
H2H4-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+56)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (4-2)