25 Jun · 11:05 MESZLow · Slight Edge
LB
🇵🇱Lukasz Bernacki
ELO 1543
FormWLLWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Bernacki
KS
🇵🇱Kamil Smolka
ELO 1521
FormWWWWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Bernacki
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 53% · 1.89· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+22
H2H2-2
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.