25 Jun · 11:00 MESZLow · Slight Edge
GP
🇵🇱Grzegorz Poliniewicz
ELO 1621
FormLLLLL
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Poliniewicz
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1585
FormWLWWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Poliniewicz
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 61% · 1.64· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+36
H2H8-7
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.