25 Jun · 11:50 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1521
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Lach
RG
🇵🇱Rafal Gajda
ELO 1482
FormWLWWL
54%
46%
Fair odds · Lach
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 58% · 1.73· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~77 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+39
H2H1-0
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.