25 Jun · 13:25 MESZLow · Slight Edge
MM
🇵🇱Michal Minda
ELO 1456
FormWLWWL
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Minda
BS
🇵🇱Bartosz Sulkowski
ELO 1442
FormWLLWL
52%
48%
Fair odds · Minda
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.97· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 32%Total ~77 pts
3-1
19%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+14
H2H17-20
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.