25 Jun · 13:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
KW
🇵🇱Karol Wisniewski
ELO 1616
FormLLWWW
54%Win chancemodel fair 1.85Wisniewski
JC
🇵🇱Jakub Chmielowski
ELO 1578
FormLWLWW
54%
46%
Fair odds · Wisniewski
Model 54% · 1.85vsMarket 54% · 1.84· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 35%Total ~78 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
20%
2-3
18%
1-3
17%
3-0
14%
Elo Gap+38
H2H11-8
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.