25 Jun · 16:20 MESZLow · Slight Edge
ML
🇵🇱Marcin Lach
ELO 1514
FormLLLWW
52%Win chancemodel fair 1.92Lach
PA
🇵🇱Pawel Adamus
ELO 1497
FormWWLWW
52%
48%
Fair odds · Lach
Model 52% · 1.92vsMarket 51% · 1.95· vig 8%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 33%Total ~76 pts
3-1
20%
3-2
19%
2-3
18%
1-3
18%
3-0
13%
Elo Gap+17
H2H0-1
Why this call
Model read
No strong signal — near coin-flip. Model leans only marginally.