25 Jun · 14:10 MESZMedium · Model Lean
JM
🇵🇱Jacek Mitas
ELO 1526
FormLLLLW
59%Win chancemodel fair 1.69Kuzmicz
JK
🇵🇱Jakub Kuzmicz
ELO 1607
FormWWLLL
41%
59%
Fair odds · Kuzmicz
Model 59% · 1.69vsMarket 56% · 1.78· vig 9%
Fair odds = price with no margin. The closing market is usually sharper than our model — we measured it.
Markets
Set score (sets)Fav −1.5 39%Total ~76 pts
1-3
22%
2-3
20%
3-2
17%
0-3
16%
3-1
15%
Elo Gap+81
H2H3-2
Why this call
Why this pick? · 2 reasons
- ✓Higher Elo rating (+81)
- ✓Winning head-to-head (3-2)